What is Polymarket?#

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. It gives you the opportunity to profit from your beliefs by betting on the outcome of future events across various topics such as sports, politics, and pop culture. Our markets reflect accurate, unbiased, real-time probabilities for events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth.

Understanding Prices#

Prices = probabilities.

Prices (odds) on Polymarket represent the current probability of an event occurring. For example, in a market predicting whether the Miami Heat will win the 2025 NBA Finals, if “Yes” shares are trading at 18 cents, it indicates a 18% chance of Miami winning.

Making money on markets#

In the example above, if you believe Miami's chances of winning are higher than 18%, you would buy “Yes” shares at 18 cents each. If Miami wins, each “Yes” share would be worth $1, resulting in an 82-cent profit per share. Conversely, any trader who owned “No” shares would see their investment become worthless once the game is over.

Since it's a market, you're not locked into your trade. You can sell your shares at any time at the current market price. As the news changes, the supply and demand for shares fluctuates, causing the share price to reflect the new odds for the event.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?#

Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than polls and pundits. Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.

This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future.

If you're an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market's accuracy.