What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from the things you know best.
Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market.
Bet on the outcome of future events in a wide range of topics, like sports, politics, and pop culture. Get accurate real-time probabilities of the events that matter most to you.
What do the prices mean?
Prices (odds) represent the current probability of an event taking place.
For example: In a market on whether Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican Nomination, if “Yes” shares are trading at 72c, that means there is a 72% chance that Donald Trump will win.
How do I make money?
In the above example, if a trader believes the true odds of Trump winning the Republican nomination are greater than 72%, they would buy “Yes” shares for 72c each.
If they’re right, meaning Trump wins the nomination, each “Yes” share would be worth $1. That’s a 28c profit per share. Conversely, any trader who owned “No” shares would see their investment become worthless.
But you’re not locked into your trade: you can sell your shares at any time at the current market odds.
Your job is to find markets where you disagree with the current odds, and profit by betting on your beliefs.
How accurate are the odds?
Research has shown prediction markets to be considerably more accurate, on average, than polls and pundits.
Traders combine all available information: news, polls, and expert opinions, and make informed trades based on that combined knowledge. Their economic incentive ensures that as more savvy traders participate, the market’s price (probability) will change to more accurately reflect the true current odds.
That’s why prediction markets are the best source of real-time event probabilities. People around the world use Polymarket to get the most accurate odds of the events they care about, thereby gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future.
If you’re an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market’s accuracy.
Polymarket is the future of news.